Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
