Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
